Yes, I think Bitcoin (and other crypto) is in a bear market. I have no idea how low we will go or how long it will take. The previous bull/bear markets offer some guidance each bull market has been driven by different types of people:
-2013 was the cypherpunks (deeply techie and anti authoritarian).
-2017 was retail investors/speculators (hoping for a fast buck).
-2020/21 was professional and rich investors (older, not digital native, more cautious).
Bear markets are bad for speculators but good for builders. This bear market is no different.
To get perspective on the wild swings, look at the charts with Log not Linear view. Log view makes the 10x from 10c to $1 the same as from $1 to $10 or $200 to $20,000 (or $20,000 to $200,000). To an investor that makes sense.
There are lots of methodologies claiming to predict where bitcoin price will go – like Mayer Multiple or Stock to Flow ratio, none of which help decipher the fear/greed cycles of markets. The bull market will start when the last bull has given up. That will be the time to buy again.
The bear market is when builders get busy. They don’t care about bull and bear markets. They care about building stuff that people will use. Bear markets make it easier to recruit talent and get attention of early adopters. It should be easier to raise money and is if you find the right investors; the wrong ones run for the hills during bear markets.
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